The March gaming and tourism numbers are out, and it doesn’t look pretty, though only time will tell whether the bottom is near or somewhere in the distance.
Statewide, all nonrestricted locations won 11.61% less this March than they in March 2008. In Las Vegas, visitor volume declined by 6.5%. Clearly, fewer people are coming to Las Vegas, and those who are, are gambling less. They aren’t spending more on hotel rooms, either; the average daily rate (ADR) fell more than 30%. Assuming a three-night stay, the average visitor saved about $130 on his room this March, money that didn’t, however, make it into the casino. Dropping room rates may have kept hotel occupancy in the respectable upper 80s, but it hasn’t translated into more spending elsewhere.
Downtown, casinos won about $55 million in March, a decline of less than three percent from the previous year. Table play shrank by about 15 percent, but slots posted a small gain. Poker, too, edged up a bit, lending credence to the belief that poker play, which is potentially more profitable than negative expectation casino games, is more “recession resistant” than slots and table games.
On the Strip, though, it was a different story, and a far gloomier one. Most table games saw double-digit declines, with the exception of roulette (at 21% gain), baccarat (about a 5% drop) and pai gow (which nearly doubled its win). Pai gow has a tiny installed base (only 24 games), so it may be unwise to read too much into its soaring revenues. Baccarat’s shrinking decrease, though, may indicate that the earlier trend away from high end play is slowing or even reversing.
Penny slots increased their revenues, by about 14% downtown and 12% on the Strip, but only about 2% statewide. Statewide, we’ve added about 4,000 penny slots in the last year, about a 12% increase, so win per device is down by about 10%, par for the course. Downtown, however, added only fifty penny machines, so the big gain there represents real growth, not just cannibalization of other denominations.
It is interesting to compare these numbers to those from 2004. Statewide, total gaming win for the month declined from $930 million to $912 million–a net loss of more than 1%. Table games became looser, with the win percentage declining from 14.04% to 11.60%; players were able to win more (or lose less), while gambling fewer dollars. Slots, however, tightened up less than one half of one percent.
One significant, though often over-looked fact, is that Nevada has fewer gaming positions today than the state did five years ago.
2004 2009
Slots 180,710 171,332
Tables 5,753 5,700
Total positions 215,228 205,532
That’s about a 4.5% decrease in capacity. Revenues, however, are down only about one percent, so casinos are apparently generating more win per position. But there has been a measurable decrease in the size of the Nevada casino industry, which raises all sorts of interesting questions about where we are going: will the industry continue to shrink, retrench, or reverse? With Aria and Fontainebleau coming online later this year we’ll see some positions added. I don’t know exactly how many, but I’d guess somewhere in the neighborhood of six to eight thousand–not enough to “grow” the industry.
In the near future, casino operators will have to do more with less of everything: visitors, room rates, casino spend, and games.
Sort of kind of tangentially related… a front page blurb in the Reno Gazette-Journal the other day was that Thunder Valley (casino over the hill) was cutting 100 jobs. Little bit of schadenfreude on our part… well at least I was laughing about it… I mean since they’re our official arch-enemy and all.
I think the remainder of this year will pretty much stay the same as the first three months and things will start improving again next year. Millions of consumers have lost thousands and thousands of dollars in their 401k’s and are cutting back and the first thing that gets eliminated is discretionary spending. Number 1 on that list is vacations and obviously this includes Las Vegas.
Another problem down the road could be the increase in gas prices. Three weeks ago in Chicago (where I live) the gas prices were about 2.00 per gallon. Now the price of gas is 2.45 per gallon which is a huge increase for just three weeks. Hopefully gas prices will stay below 3.00 per gallon but who knows. High gas prices wreaked havoc on the economy until September 15, 2008 of last year when Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, etc. shell game was exposed and then the economy hit the skids. Patience is a virtue and eventually everything will get better. How much better is the question.