Consider some poker players at an Indian casino that does not offer dice. They took their usual breakfast break and the five of them discussed the then very recent record-breaking roll at the Borgatta. It was quite clear from their extended and intensely aniated discussions that each of the five would be spending some time and money at the craps table if the casino they were in offered the game. Would this parasitize the poker room or add to the value of the casino. Is this something that can be measured or predicted?

Some tourists come to Vegas poker rooms and get picked clean by people who play poker all day long each and every day rather than two weeks a year. Would the increased experience offered by online poker alter the Las Vegas statistics? Do Vegas stats already reflect a decreased tendancy to hop on an airplane when a home computer terminal is available without having to go through a metal detector?

Online scandals don’t seem to phase anyone. There is an unending parade of gorgeous females playing and commenting about poker. Online casinos close and people lose money but come back for more poker. The poker market never really dries up. A new on-line casino doesn’t seem to bleed an existing online casino anywhere near what “bricks” casinos seem to do to each other.

I’d say your estimates are reasonable understatements and that the market is really larger. And will continue to grow larger. If flights to Las Vegas decrease and security screenings take even longer, online players will increase. Sure some young women play in Vegas, but online a player can be a young woman who enjoys poker but doesn’t have to put up with cigar smoke and sexual innuendo all night long. Poker rooms in Vegas will not let a woman put a baby’s crib beside her, but online no one will know. The growth potential for online seems quite beyond your reasonable but conservative estimates.