This is the online home of David G. Schwartz, who Prescient words?
I was doing some research in the 1997 time frame and happened across this quote in the July 1997 Casino Executive Magazine:
“If you’re the last person to build that last $1 billion project in Las Vegas, you might be wishing you hadn’t spent your money that way.”
–Harrah’s [then] CEO Phil Satre
From the perspective of 2009, truer words have never been spoken. You’ve got to adjust for inflation, of course; if we were only talking $1 billion projects, no one would be worrying at all.
Of course, it’s always easy to make bold predictions on either side since the economy runs in such cycles. Someone preaching doom sounded out of touch in 2006, and someone ringing the bell for expansion sounds like a pollyanna now. When you consider that Satre was speaking before the Bellagio opened, you’ve got to admit that the bulls had a pretty good run.
Posted in business of gamblingon 11/19/2009 02:47 pm by Dave
11/19/2009 at 6:07 pm
My comment is completely off the subject, but hearing the term pollyanna made me think that Pollyanna name and theme might actually be a good choice for an up-coming hotel-casino (catering to women). Or else….maybe a Barbie Themed Casino.
I remember that (a few years back) Jethro had some sort of plan to open a Beverly Hillbillies Casino. I’d have loved to see the ‘Granny’s Buffet’ there (all-you-can-eat possum and buzzard gizzards).
I’ll be glad when this recession ends and the next batch of new-themed casinos start arriving. Who knows what’s in store. I think the tall, glass tower phase is ending soon. The price of Windex gets out-of-hand.
11/21/2009 at 1:34 pm
There are currently two Las Vegas resorts being built that cost over $1 billion dollars that probably should not have been built: they are the Fontainebleau ($3 billion plus) and the Cosmopolitan ($3.9 billion). When both were announced in 2005 their cost was $1.5 billion for each of them. Both of their costs skyrocketed because of increase costs in materials, revised plans midway through building which increased costs, etc., etc. The Manhattinization of Las Vegas did not turn out so well, did it?
The $8.5 billion dollar City Center is the key to Las Vegas. Hopefully it will be great and will increase visitation to Las Vegas.
11/23/2009 at 3:20 am
>the bulls had a pretty good run.
Yes. Even if today’s naysayers turn out to be correct and the builders of the last few mega-resorts regret their investments a great deal of money was made by those who did not worry about that steamroller as they were picking up the pennies. Those who listen to naysayers and wave their MBA diplomas and discuss the Greater Fool Theory will eventually be correct but meanwhile the ones who did invest in mega resorts made a great deal of money. And perhaps the band has played a few sour notes of late, but the music is still playing. Doom and gloom naysayers often turn out to be right, but optimists often turn out to be right also. So, “its not over till its over”!
Cost over-runs, fast-track construction and shoddy workmanship may increase the pricetag on a project but they don’t ever increase the value of it. And there are always vultures out there with an eye for value rather than an eye for the steamroller.
11/23/2009 at 10:58 am
Nice find Dr. Dave!