Penny slots most profitable in 09

I’ve been trying to answer the question, “Why are slot hold percentages generally increasing” and have come to the conclusion that player preference for high-hold, low-denom games is a major factor. Finishing up a paper on the question, I thought I’d share some raw data:
wnperslot
Between 2000 and 2003, the Gaming Control Board didn’t list pennies as a separate denom because there weren’t enough of them. Ditto for multi-denoms in 2001/02.

In this chart, I compared win per unit for all statewide slots by denom. This is a better index for player preference than straight revenues, because it gives an idea of how popular each individual machine is. If you’re a slot manager, you generally want more machines that have a higher win per unit on your floor. Naturally, you’re not going to put in all penny slots (even though they are the most profitable) because some players prefer other denoms. But the slot floor denom mix is highly variable: in 2000, nearly half of all Nevada casino slots were quarters; today, just over one tenth are. So these numbers are important.

The shorthand version is that pennies have fallen to about 2005 numbers, while nickels are back to 2003, quarters to 2004, and dollars to 2000. Multi-denom slots are back to 2003 levels, give or take.

So it seems that, despite the fact that the pennies have an average hold of over 10% while dollars are near 5%, pennies are more popular than dollar machines (and all other machines). Slot gamblers are essentially paying twice as much to play pennies than they would dollars, and their popularity doesn’t seem to be slowing down. In both real and proportional terms, pennies have lost less ground than all other denominations.

Of course, it’s possible that players turned off by high holds have stopped playing Nevada slot machines altogether, since all slot numbers are down. Dollar slots, though, lost far more ground than pennies. In 2009, penny slots dethroned dollars for the “highest win per unit” crown. It’s a historic change, since dollars had long ruled the roost.

It seems clear that, while they search for bargain room rates and trim their gambling budgets, most players aren’t looking for any advantage when it comes to actual slot play.

Fall of the Boardwalk Empire?

My piece in the Las Vegas Business Press about the beginning of the end in Atlantic City is out:

Historians have taken the date 476 A.D. and the deposition of Romulus Augustus, the last Roman emperor, as the “official” date of the fall of the Roman Empire, even though at the time most Western Europeans were too preoccupied with daily survival to take much notice of events in the far-off capital.

When historians look back at the history of casino gaming in Atlantic City, they may decide that 2010 marks the beginning of the end of that city's reign as one of the country's leading gaming destinations, and they might focus on a single event: The decision by MGM Mirage to abandon its holdings in the city after the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement found Pansy Ho, the company's partner in its MGM Grand Macau casino, “unsuitable.”

via Las Vegas Business Press :: David G. Schwartz : The beginning of the end for Atlantic City?.

I don’t think this is hyperbole. The revenue trends are showing a decline that started slightly before the recession that is more due to competition than the economic slowdown, although the recession hasn’t helped. There are real problems in Atlantic City.

Are there solutions? Yes, and they go beyond making Pacific Avenue a one-way street. As I see it, the city has to be reinvented to appeal to two groups: investors, who will buy or build new casinos and attractions, and visitors, who will fill them. These groups aren’t mutually exclusive, but they require different approaches. The average gambler doesn’t really care about how many levels of scrutiny casino vendors go through before they are licensed, but this sort of thing makes a difference behind the scenes.

It’s not impossible. The city’s been through worse, and the right forward-thinking people can help get it on the right track. The time for action, however, is now. If AC just continues to coast for a few years, it may be too late, at least for this generation.