I response to a few questions, I put together some gaming revenue data and came up with Nevada Gaming Statistics: Year-to-Date Comparison, a look at how this year’s results stack up against last year’s. Found some interesting things.
Statewide, in 2009 the January-August total revenue was $6,944,221,000. In 2010, it was $6,937,680,000. A decrease of less than one-tenth of one percent. So while it’s fair to say that revenues are still in decline, they aren’t showing the massive 10% declines of 2008 and 2009.
The Las Vegas Strip is actually a bit ahead of the game, up just under 5% for the year. This means that the rest of the state is dragging, and it is.
I thought it might be interesting to try to handicap what the year-end gaming revenue total for the state would be. It’s a way of trying to peak into the future. Here goes:
If the current pattern holds, and revenues for the last four months of the year are also 0.09% lower than 2009, we’ll end up with total gaming revenues of $10,347,628,000.
If the last four months see a strong recovery (average gain of 10% in revenues), we’ll see total revenues of $10,727,128,000.
If we see a modest recovery (average gain of 5%), we’ll see total revenues of $10,553,926,000.
If we see a modest decline in revenues (averaging 5%), we’ll have total 2010 revenues of $10,209,522,000.
And if we have a major decline (average 10% down per month), the year-end total for Nevada’s gaming revenues will be $10,037,320,000.
Basically, total 2010 gaming revenues are probably going to range between $10 billion and $10.7 billion. Anything on either side of that is either an unexpected catastrophe or windfall. At this point, it doesn’t look like we’re dipping under the $10 billion mark, a big psychological divide. Macau, by the way, is on track to shatter the $20 billion mark this year.
At the end of the year, the story is going to be “we have reached bottom.” Unless it’s a false bottom.
Or, as I like to tell my running group, “It’s all downhill from here. Except for the parts that are uphill.”