I had a busy day yesterday. I added a previously-written column on the history of Steel Pier right here and I wrote two pieces for Two Way Hard Three.
The first was a fun little piece about Vegas insider moves:
Everyone wants to feel that they’re a Vegas insider. It might be something as basic as knowing that the airport connector isn’t the most direct route from McCarran to the MGM Grand, or it might be something as esoteric as being able to quote, from memory, the names of all of the bouncers at every Vegas nightclub.
Basically, it feels good to know that you’re doing Vegas right. There are so many rookie mistakes to be made (and hey, even locals make them all the time) that it’s great to know that you didn’t waste your time or get ripped off.
Then, reacting to news that Steel Pier was for sale (and the justification for it), I shared a few thoughts on Steel Pier:
To me, Steel Pier is symbolic of the failures of the casino industry in Atlantic City. When it was being built, a bridge over the Boardwalk to Steel Pier was considered one of the marquee attractions of the Taj. This would have hosted a restaurant or nightclub offering tremendous views of the Boardwalk. I can only imagine how great it would have been to sit down for a meal or go out for a night of dancing with the lights of the Boardwalk and the ocean waves surrounding you.
A profile piece that was a lot of fun to write is out today in Vegas Seven‘s Green Felt Journal. It’s the result of a long talk with Skylofts concierge Sherman James, who has quite a story:
Sherman James might not be onstage when he arrives for work at 6 each morning at MGM Grand’s Skylofts, but he’s still the star of the show.
He’s been a concierge at the 51-loft hotel within a hotel since it opened in 2005, and he brings a different kind of experience than most employees of the ultra-luxury guest boutique: Long before he was a concierge, the sprightly 62-year-old had a career singing professionally and touring with groups like the Platters, the Coasters and the Imperials.
From the age of 18, James, who sings tenor, baritone and falsetto, spent a good part of each year on the road. Touring with revues such as Dick Clark’s Rock and Roll Revival and backing singers from Aretha Franklin to Loretta Lynn, he learned to be versatile and gained an appreciation of the world beyond the stage.
I really enjoyed getting Mr. James’ perspective on things. It’s great to hear stories about the road, and he’s really got a unique perspective. If you ever stay in Skylofts, you definitely want to ask his opinion about just about everything.
I can finally announce the specifics about this month’s Gaming Research Colloquium talk. Here’s the official announcement:
Please join us on Thursday, March 24, at 12:15 PM, as March Gaming Research Fellow Benjamin Min Han delivers a Gaming Research Colloquium talk entitled “We’re Right Next Door’: Televisual Las Vegas in Cold War America.”
Han, currently a graduate student in cinema studies at New York University, is looking at how television performances helped to shape perceptions of Las Vegas. Since World War II, Las Vegas has evolved into an entertainment capital of the world. While we often associate Las Vegas with gambling and casinos, many foreign ethnic talents arrived in the city to perform in hotels and nightclubs. These talented performers were instrumental in the development of televisual Las Vegas. This talk explores the migration of ethnic talent, and how such prominent Las Vegas entertainment business figures like Jack Entratter and Bill Willard envisioned transforming the city into a primary center of television production from the 1950s to 1970s.
The event is free and open to the public. Those interested in Las Vegas history, entertainment, American studies, and media studies are encouraged to attend.
The talk is being held in UNLV Special Collections’ Reading Room, on the third floor of Lied Library.
Yesterday I checked out the Las Vegas Mob Experience, the new attraction at the Tropicana. I had profoundly mixed feelings about it.
We start out in a line, waiting to get in for about 20 minutes. There’s a big fake ship, with what is apparently bootlegged booze being off-loaded. As I tweeted, it reminded me of the Star Trek episode “A Piece of the Action,” in which Kirk and Spock make mischief on a planet that has inexplicably patterned itself off of 1920s gangland Chicago.
Here’s a clip:
Much like the LVME, it was a fun costume romp that wasn’t long on historical accuracy. But who cares? You got to see Spock in pinstripes and Shatner talking gangster! Or, in this case, you get a tag with your “gangster name” to wear around your neck.
BTW, my gangster name was “Peanuts,” which is uncannily appropriate, given my former labors on the Atlantic City Boardwalk as Mr. Peanut.
While waiting, we had to listen to a Las Vegas native, who seemed like a nice enough guy, tell us repeatedly that the Mafia “created Las Vegas” and “ran Las Vegas.” Groan.
Pretty much everyone’s wearing fedoras and other cartoon gangster fetish stuff, and a disturbing number of employees were talking with exaggerated Noo Yawk accents.
Improbably enough, the LVME proper starts at Ellis Island, which the docent/actor/whatever told us, “Is where America begins, 1900 to 1930, where Noo Yawk started.”
At that, I can’t contain myself and roll my eyes.
“What?” she says.
“America started in 1900?” I ask.
“So?”
“Ummm…1776?”
“Well I’m not good at math.”
Plus, just looking at Wikipedia tells us that Ellis Island was open from 1892 to 1954, though a lot of the “New” immigration that they’re apparently blaming for organized crime slowed to a trickle after the restrictive immigration acts of 1921 and 1924.
When Wikipedia is kicking your ass factually, maybe you need to look at how you train your employees. I’m not saying you need someone to give a nuanced lecture on the history of American immigration, but at least don’t say stuff that isn’t true.
The whole idea that organized crime was an outside menace foisted on American society by immigrant groups during Prohibition is false. American organized crime goes back to at least the 1850s; watch the film Gangs of New York if you want to take your history from cinema; Scorsese actually got a lot of it right. And Daniel Day Lewis as Bill the Butcher Cutting (based on Bill Poole) is masterful. If you want to check out something more academic, I’d suggest Mark Haller or Joseph Albini’s work.
The LVME is divided into two sections, which overlap a bit. There is the actors doing skits part, which is fun, and the historical artifacts, which are mostly behind cases with some interpretive text. You start out at Ellis Island, talk to a guy named Tony, then a guy named Leo, then get interviewed by a cop with an Irish brogue straight out of Central Casting, and keep on running into people like that along the way. That aspect of the LVME is actually fun: it’s like a mob-themed haunted house, which isn’t the first thing I’d want to do for fun, but at least the actors were engaging.
There are also little bits recorded by famous actors (my group got to see James Caan) telling us all the “real story” of how the Mob is responsible for all that’s wonderful in Las Vegas. Towards the end you get more artifacts, most of which aren’t inherently that interesting—seeing a recreation of Meyer Lansky’s library doesn’t really tell us anything about his career.
Focusing the story on Prohibition and gambling makes it seem like organized crime had (and has) no victims, only happy customers. I wonder what the restaurant owners and garment district entrepreneurs thought about while they were being shaken down for protection money? That’s really glossed over.
One funny moment: after the “casino surveillance” section (a facsimile of a catwalk), we go to a “backroom,” where a guy with a baseball bat tells us we’ve caught a cheater. What should we do? Kill him? Maybe just break a leg or two?”
“Why don’t we call the Gaming Control Board?” I ask, recalling my own experience in casino security and surveillance. “They’ll make the arrest.”
This didn’t go over well. The guy went into a backroom behind the backroom and we heard a gunshot. So apparently a fictitious guy was murdered for peeking at the dealer’s hole card.
The funniest thing was the reaction from one of the other visitors: “There was no Gaming Control Board!” Which might have been true before 1955, but even then I’ve got to think that the idea of glamorizing a vigilante group that metes out the death penalty for theft is a bit daft. This is the biggest problem with the LVME: despite all the protestations that this is really a serious, loving look at the real history of Las Vegas, it’s just a schlocky retread of bad gangster movies.
I’m not trying to say that there wasn’t organized crime involvement in Las Vegas—clearly there was. I’m just saying it wasn’t quite so…Technicolor.
In the run-up to the opening, I heard a lot about how we’d have holograms of famous mob figures touring people around. Needless to say, that kind of holodeck technology (which even Kirk and Spock didn’t have; they had to wait until Picard and company for that) didn’t happen. The actors who appeared seemed to be a regular front-projection video. Towards the end, there was a positively grotesque series of 3-D busts of Mickey Cohen that changed their angle depending on your position. They looked almost, but not completely, inhuman–like some kind of alien embryo. Very creepy, and again it brought up the “Mob Haunted House” vibe.
If you’re looking for a theme park ride version of the mob, the LVME is for you. If you’re looking for an even somewhat-accurate historical interpretation of the evolution of Las Vegas or of organized crime in America, you’re out of luck.
On a positive note, this has inspired me to make my next project a “real” real history of the development of Las Vegas casinos. I’ve done some great interviews with people who were really there, from Allard Roen to Jack Binion, who I think deserve to be heard.
And, by the way, if you’re interested in learning a little slice of this “real” real history, I’ve got a very entertaining talk that I give called “Gambling and the Mob” that covers the story they’re trying to tell with the LVME but does so from a factual perspective that actually addresses the positives and negatives of organized crime’s legacy. If you have a convention group that’s coming to Las Vegas and want to hear it, please contact me to discuss availability.
After hearing–then reading about–one frequent Vegas traveler’s experience with the new Stratosphere, and seeing billboards trumpeting the “new” Strat splashed liberally around the valley, I was planning to head down to see what all the fuss was about.
Then I got a call from KNPR’s State of Nevada to talk about the impact that the $20 million renovations will have, and what they all mean. I agreed to do the interview, and after poring over some American Casino & Entertainment Properties SEC filings, felt like I had a good grasp of the context of the renovations. After a fairly in-depth discussion with host Luis Hernandez, I was pleasantly surprised to get an email from ACEP Ceo Frank Riolo inviting me to come down and talk about the renovations, and get a look at the place. [Full disclosure--I had lunch with Mr. Riolo at the Top of the World restaurant, and the company took care of my Philly Style Grilled Flank Steak sandwich, which was, incidentally, pretty good.]
In addition to talking with Mr. Riolo, I also got to meet Brian G. Thornton, the designer behind the renovations.
So here are some pictures and a few thoughts. Rather than duplicate the excellent over on VegasTripping, and because I didn’t get to see a spa suite, you’ll be getting a view inside a standard room.
Vegas Seven is back on its weekly schedule after its end-of-year double issue, which means that today you have a brand new Green Felt Journal to read. It’s about how smaller casinos competing with the New Year’s parties on the Strip:
The lion’s share of that haul goes to the big Strip resorts, which host most of the events that make the news. But what about casinos outside the tourist corridor? How do they compete with champagne toasts with the stars and fireworks by Grucci?
The Fremont Street Experience’s TributePalooza is one way to go: If you can’t get marquee names for your party, get sound-alikes. So instead of offering a shindig hosted by Nelly or Rihanna, the Experience rolled out sets by bands such as Fan Halen, the Red Not Chili Peppers and Led Zepagain, as well as less-obvious tributaries, such as Bonfire (AC/DC) and Rocking the Paradise (Styx).
Some might question the wisdom of offering visitors ersatz “Mr. Roboto” when there are so many real celebrities popping corks just miles away, but TributePalooza’s in its third year and shows no signs of slowing down, which proves you don’t need to pay headliner prices to put on a party that people will flock to.
Am I the only one who loves those tribute band names? One of my hobbies is thinking of good names for bands, and these are some good ones.
As to the story, I found it interesting that the folks on the Strip were mostly interested in putting on a huge party (which is good), while those off-Strip were more focused on rewarding their existing customers and advertising themselves to potential new ones.
Interesting column in The Economist that I don’t necessarily agree with:
More important, few residents of Las Vegas would any longer agree that their city is either great or happy.
Nevada has America’s highest unemployment rate. In Las Vegas, unemployment has risen more this year even as it has flattened in the rest of the country; it peaked at 15.5% in September. Nevada also has America’s highest foreclosure rate. In Las Vegas more than 70% of homeowners with mortgages owe more to the bank than their houses are worth. This desert valley, which once represented the most extreme pleasures in American consumerism, now has the most severe hangover.
There’s a lot of truth in this article, but the perspective is just slightly wrong. And that makes all the difference.
For instance, the author says that “Tourists are now returning, but in numbers too small” to help Las Vegas. While it’s true that the average spend per visitor has fallen, visitation actually rose in 2010. This would have been a more accurate article a year ago, but even then I’d insist the real story wasn’t that Vegas visitation had fallen, but that it was so resilient. At the (hopefully) tail end of the worst recession in sixty years, 37 million people still came to Las Vegas this year. Surely, that’s got to count for something.
And I take issue with the idea of an “existential” crisis for Las Vegas. Yes, I do believe that it’s possible that the rapid devaluation of people’s net work over the past three years has probably made them more risk averse, or “gun shy,” as I was quoted as saying. But the fact is, they are still coming to Las Vegas, which means that the city doesn’t have a major crisis of existence.
Even my theory, as logical as it sounds, is just a theory, and will never be a fact. As I explained to the reporter, it’s impossible to falsify a claim like that–you would have to have done measures of risk tolerance among people coming to Las Vegas in, say, 2006, then re-done studies on the same people this year. And since it can’t be falsified, it can’t be “true” in the way that 2+2=4 is. So, as I said, it’s the kind of thing that I’ll bring up at cocktail parties if people ask for a pop psychology explanation of what’s going on, but I can’t really say if that’s the reason for falling table hold percentages (a phenomenon which pre-dates the recession, BTW).
For that matter, I asked the reporter for evidence of this big cultural shift: how can he prove that the “zeitgeist” had shifted? It’s a pretty glib concept that, again, can’t be falsified. I could just as reasonably say that, since people saw the economic system melt down and saw companies insulated from their bad choices via government bailouts, people might have a greater tolerance for risk, or at least a lesser appreciation for its consequences.
It’s particularly galling that the author didn’t acknowledge existing revenue trends that might disprove his argument. Slot handle, which I consider as good a measure for the broad “demand” for Nevada gaming as any, rose for the first time in October.
As I told him, the idea that the zeitgeist has shifted against Las Vegas and gambling is both incredibly glib and not borne out by the facts. According to the best archaeological evidence, humans have been gambling for thousands of years; its short-sighted to say that a recession, even one lasting three years or longer, is going to change that.
No Green Felt Journal this week because it’s a special Double Issue, but I did get a quick write-up of Co*, the Cosmopolitan’s not-a-cafeteria employee eatery in the Latest section in Vegas Seven:
At the Cosmopolitan’s ribbon-cutting ceremony Dec. 15, property CEO John Unwin paid tribute to the 5,000 employees—the Cosmo term is “co-stars”—delivering “spirited and vibrant” service to the new resort’s guests.
“They do this in a way that’s crafted, yet unscripted,” he declared. “This resort will show its personality through the personalities of our co-stars.” The employees, he made clear, were the most important part of the new resort.
With such a heavy responsibility on the people doing the work, what is the Cosmopolitan doing to make them feel ready for their closeup every day?
I’d like to learn more about Co*. The most different thing that I saw is that it’s not just a fill-your-plate and take-your-seat cafeteria: there are prices on the food, and cashiers to ring up your order.
All of the entrees I saw were under $8, and the Cosmopolitan gives employees and $8-per-shift allowance for food, so it seems like it’s a push if you eat one hot meal per shift. Soft drinks and snacks were free.
I don’t know what kind of cost savings Cosmopolitan will get from controlling the portion sizes in this way–will it offset the time lost in waiting in line, and the payroll expenses for cashiers? And does the casino have to pay taxes on employee meals now, since they’re being bought rather than given away? Good questions that I hope I can learn the answers to.
A while back, some folks asked me what I thought the near-future held for Las Vegas gaming and tourism. After mulling over some of the LVCVA data for the past 40 years, I gave them six different scenarios. This might be nice for a wider audience, I thought. But, since I had a lot on my plate, it fell to the bottom of my to-do list.
Today, reading about the PWC report in the Las Vegas Sun, I decided to share what I came up with.
There are so many variables at play, I decided to forecast out six different scenarios that begin with the current trend, but allow for some flexibility.
Instead of looking at statewide numbers, I focused on Clark County, since I was using the LVCVA’s data and they include Clark County gaming revenue with their visitor data.
Through September, Clark County revenue is just about flat with 2009; that’s about where it should end up (a while back I did a post with some statewide revenue projections if you’re curious). The Strip is definitely trending up, but everywhere else continues to drag.
My methodology was simple: by dividing the total county gaming revenue by the number of annual visitors, I got a neat “gaming spend/visitor” number. Yes, this includes the locals’ play with the visitors’ play, but since the locals’ economy is largely driven by tourism (more tourist spending=more tips/paychecks for locals that can end up a locals’ casinos) this wasn’t necessarily a drawback.
Based on the about 2.5% increase in visitation we’ve seen for Las Vegas this year, I decided to offer two main scenarios: a modest and a major increase over the next six years.
The modest increase in visitation assumes a compound annual growth in tourism of 1%. Yes, that’s less than the 2010 total, but I figured this was averaged out for six years, and should conservatively take into account some possible contraction.
The major increase in visitation assumes a compound annual growth in tourism of 7%, which is about equal to what the Strip saw in the 1990s. Not likely, as far as I can see, but it’s a good best-case scenario.
For each possible increase in visitation, I posited three possibilities:
1. Gaming spend/visitor will continue to fall at the 2009-2010 rate (3%)
2. Gaming spend/visitor will remain flat (sounds good, but when adjusting for inflation isn’t)
3. Gaming spend/visitor will increase by an average of 3% year
Below, I’ve got summaries of each of the six scenarios [I'll post jpgs of the data this afternoon, time permitting]
SCENARIO 1
(Modest increase in visitation, 3% gaming spend/visitor decline)
Clark County gaming revenues decline by about 10% by 2015. More visitors coming doesn’t matter, if they don’t spend more. This kind of sustained decline would have serious impacts for the state’s budget, since 85% of all gaming revenues come from Clark County.
SCENARIO 2
(Modest increase in visitation, gaming spend/visitor flat)
By 2015, gaming revenues increase by about $500 million, to $9.2 billion. This looks like a win, but it's actually going to be running neck-and-neck with inflation.
SCENARIO 3
(Modest increase in visitation, 3% gaming spend/visitor increase)
Now we’re getting somewhere. Gaming revenue increases by $2 billion by 2015, with about $10.8 billion coming in. This is at least a viable future.
SCENARIO 4
(Major increase in visitation, 3% gaming spend/visitor decline)
Even if visitation skyrockets, it’s not worth much if spend/visitor declines: despite handling almost 6 million more visitors in 2015, the total gaming revenue actually fall below their 2010 levels.
SCENARIO 5
(Major increase in visitation, gaming spend/visitor flat)
This looks workable, with an increase of gaming revenue to $10.2 billion by 2015. If there’s a bigger bump in non-gaming spending and higher sales tax collections that offset the increased costs associated with having more visitors, this could be workable.
SCENARIO 6
(Major increase in visitation, 3% gaming spend/visitor increase)
Isn’t this the best of both worlds? More visitors, spending more. We get Clark County gaming revenues rising to $11.9 billion by 2015.
——
Let’s compare my scenarios with PriceWaterhouse Coopers. In 2014, they believe that Nevada’s total gaming revenues will be $12.4 billion. Extrapolating from my Clark County data (assuming that the county will average 85% of total state revenues), here my estimated 2014 statewide totals. These might be a bit optimistic, since I’m guessing that Clark County’s total share of state gaming revenues will increase.
I think the PWC folks might have been right on this one. It’s not the most optimistic projection, but it’s not unduly pessimistic, either. If I had to handicap it, I’d say that in 2014 the statewide gaming revenues should be somewhere between $11.5 billion and $13 billion. There are so many variables out there, though, that it’s pretty hard to handicap.
Firing open the digital Las Vegas Sun today, I saw a breaking new story: New Years Eve packages for Cosmopolitan will be available for $5,600.
Except that I first saw that story on vegastripping.com back on Sunday.
It’s another sign to me of how the nature of news is changing: you’re just as likely to learn about gaming industry happenings from blogs or from the folks in the industry themselves as you are to read about it in the paper.
With not much else on the horizon, the Cosmopolitan opening is big news in Las Vegas: in the past week, I’ve talked to a queue of international reporters about it.
One thing that’s interesting about the Cosmopolitan’s message: back in March, as vegastripping.com and other places reported, the resort’s tagline was “It’s not for everyone.”
Today, though, the focus has shifted. Talking with several Cosmopolitan executives over the past few days while writing a Vegas Seven story about the casino and CEO John Unwin, I was struck by how the message has changed. No one’s saying “It’s not for everyone” these days–now the message is: “We’ve got some things you’ve never seen before, but if you like Las Vegas and want to have fun, you’ll like our property.”
While getting the rundown on the retail options, which will reportedly feature a number of price ranges, I almost felt like bursting into “Comedy Tonight” from A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Forum.
So I think the Cosmopolitan is going to be much more inclusive than some think. You can read a mini-essay from the casino’s career page which will give you an idea of what you might find there.
Interestingly, the only place I could find the “it’s not for everyone” phrase today was on the Cosmopolitan career page.
Even the art program, which some have claimed is evidence of an overarching “we’re not for everyone” theme, doesn’t seem to me to be about elitism or snobbishness. Instead, it’s about “art for guest’s sake,” at least according to the casino website.
All of this begs the question: is Las Vegas inherently anti-art, and are projects like Cosmopolitan and CityCenter that promote art prominently going against the grain? I’m not so sure that’s true, and once the dust settles from the opening I’d like to write about the evolution of art in Las Vegas. After all, the Bellagio’s gallery has been open for twelve years, and Wynn/Encore has some incredible pieces of art on its walls. Take a stroll the convention center sometime if you haven’t seen it. Of course, you’ve got the Guggenheim at the Venetian, which would seem to argue against the idea. Suffice it to say that I’m going to investigate this further.
By 2015, gaming revenues increase by about $500 million, to $9.2 billion. This looks like a win, but it's actually going to be running neck-and-neck with inflation.
